DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR AVIATION INDUSTRY
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DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR AVIATION INDUSTRY
ABSTRACT
This research paper discusses the design and implementation of a weather foresting system for the aviation sector utilising Sam Mbakwe Airport in Owerri, Imo State as a case study. With the following research objectives: To assist aviation meteorologists in providing accurate weather forecasts.
To enable the aviation sector to make control decisions based on the information provided, and so on. This study paper examines the background and general concept of weather forecasting, which inspired me to conduct research on the difficulty faced by the aviation industry.
The use of manual methods in weather forecasting, as well as storing or retaining records and analysing them, causes inaccuracy.
The following forecasting approaches are used: persistence method, synoptic forecasting, statistical method, synoptic forecasting, statistical method, all of which narrow or suggest improved means of weather forecasting.
The language utilised in this research was visual basic 6.0, which resulted in the creation and execution of a weather forecasting package that will make weather forecasting faster, more accurate, and more reliable in our society.
CHAPITRE ONE
INTRODUCTION
Every day, millions of economic decisions are made based on weather in transportation, agriculture, power, construction, and other areas of the economy.
Weather conditions have a direct and indirect impact on the whole economy. Better weather forests bring economic prospects to practically every sector of the economy.
Weather forecasts are crucial for the commercial and private transportation sectors, including the airline, shipping, and trucking industries, on a national and worldwide scale.
Short-term forecasts, for example, are used by airlines to optimally position their aircraft and change flight itineraries.
HISTORY OF THE STUDY
Early civilizations used recurring astronomical and metrological occurrences to monitor seasonal variations in the weather to help them track seasonal changes in the weather (MISTIC House, 2008).
Around 650 BC, the Babylonians attempted to forecast short-term weather changes using clouds and optical phenomena such as haloes. By 300 B.C., Chinese astronomers had created a calendar that divided the year into 24 festivals, each linked with a distinct sort of weather.
Aristotle, a Greek philosopher, authored Metrological around 340 B.C., a philosophical book that featured speculations concerning the genesis of rain, clouds, hail, wind, thunder, lightning, and hurricanes.
Topics such as astronomy, geography, and chemistry were also covered. Aristotle made several remarkable weather observations, as well as some serious errors.
For nearly 200 years, many believed his four-volume treatise to be the authority on weather theory. Although many of Aristotle’s statements were incorrect, many of his theories were not abandoned until the 17th century. Attempts have been made over the years to develop forecasts based on weather lore and personal observations.
However, towards the end of the Renaissance, it had become increasingly clear that the natural philosophers’ ideas were inadequate and that greater information was required to advance our understanding of the atmosphere (Wilson, 2007).
These instruments were required to measure the qualities. Moisture, temperature, and pressure are all aspects of the atmosphere. In the mid-fifteenth century, Nicholas Cusa (C.1401 – 1464, German) presented the first known design for a hygrometer, a device used to measure the humidity of air.
Evangelista Torricelli (1608 – 1647, Italian) created the barometer for measuring atmospheric pressure in 1643, while Galileo Galilsi (1564 – 1642, Italian) invented an early thermometer in 1592 or shortly thereafter.
During the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries, as these meteorological instruments were being refined, other related observational theoretical and technological developments contributed to our understanding of the atmosphere, and individuals in various locations began to make and record atmospheric measurements.
In the mid-nineteenth century, the development of the telegraph and the establishment of telegraph networks enabled the routine transmission of weather observations to and from observers and compilers.
These data were used to create rough weather maps, as well as identify and study surface wind patterns and storm systems.
Weather observing stations began to proliferate all over the world, eventually spawning the creation of synoptic weather forecasting in the 1860s, which was based on the compilation and analysis of many observations taken concurrently over a vast area.
More data became accessible for observation-based weather forecasting with the creation of regional and global metrological observation networks in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.
The invention of the radiosonde in the 1920s was a significant advance in weather monitoring at high altitudes. Radiosondes are small, light-weight boxes fitted with meteorological equipment and a radio transmitter that are propelled high into the stratosphere by a hydrogen or helium-filled balloon that ascends to about 30 km before bursting (Gaffen, 2008).
These equipment relay temperature, moisture, and pressure data (called soundings) back to the ground station during the ascent.
Three, the data is processed and made available for use in the creation of weather maps or the incorporation of computer models for weather prediction. Every twelve (12) hours, radiosondes are launched from hundreds of ground stations throughout the world.
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The following are the objectives of this research project:
To assist aviation meteorologists in providing accurate weather forecasts.
To allow aviation meteorologists to offer weather forecasts with as little delay as possible.
iii. To enable the aviation industry to make flight control decisions based on the information provided.
To learn and apply advanced programming languages as a rational tool for weather forecasting.
To ensure successful analysis and design implementation, as well as to provide solutions to state-of-the-art difficulties in aviation weather forecasting.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The current approach of forecasting weather in the aviation sector is hampered by the following issues.
Weather forecasting inaccuracy
Delay in forecasting weather conditions from the headquarters (meteorological services Headquarters in Lagos).
iii. The use of manual methods in weather forecasting, as well as the storing or keeping of prior measurements of meteorological variables and their analysis.
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The goal of this project is to provide a usable, easy-to-use, and dependable software programme for forecasting meteorological conditions in the aviation business (Sam Mbakwe Airport).
This project’s scope encompasses the following areas and addresses total automation of the following:
The data entry area, which allows for the simple entry of data acquired from various instruments’ measurements.
The data base: the data entered is saved in a data base for record keeping and easy sorting of a specific record(s).
iii. The weather analysis: This studies a specified record of daily weather measurements and also displays data statistics.
The weather forecast: The weather’s impact and remarks are provided.
IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY
The purpose of this research is to create a weather forecasting package for the aviation industry that will provide information on weather conditions on a daily basis, and this information will be valuable for pilots.
Landing of an aircraft
Aeroplane take-off iii. Making decisions on route changes and inconveniences; and
Discomfort caused by altitude variations in flying.
LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
One of the constraints encountered by the researcher was the difficulty in obtaining information and important data regarding the current system from the staff of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Imo Airport.
Another barrier encountered by the researcher is financial limits, particularly in terms of transportation to the region of study for data collection and the expense of obtaining information from relevant journals, books, printed materials from the internet, and so on.
Finally, there are no relevant textbooks connected to the subject that can be used to make citations.
DEFINITION OF TERMS
Beaufort scale: A scale that shows wind speed based on the influence of wind on familiar items.
DRIZZLE: A type of precipitation composed of water droplets less than 5mm in size.
FOG: water that has collected near to ground level, forming a cloud of very minute droplets that impairs visibility to less than one kilometre (3,300 ft).
HAIL: ice balls formed by liquid precipitation freezing and being coated by layers of ice when it is lifted and cooled in powerful updrafts of thunder storms.
HAZE: Fine dry or moist dust particles suspended in a low-visibility environment. The bluish or yellowish linge distinguishes it from log.
LIGHTING: Any visible electrical discharge produced by a thunder storm.
METEOROLOGY: The study of atmospheric phenomena, including all processes that occur in the atmosphere and their interactions with processes on the earth’s surface.
MISI: very fine ground-level water droplets with halo that exist in air.
OVERCAST: When clouds cover more than 9/10ths of the sky.
A RADIOSONDE is a balloon that carries devices that measure conditions in the upper atmosphere.
RAIN: A type of precipitation that consists of water droplets greater than 0.5mm in size.
SHOWER: A sort of precipitation that happens when the atmosphere is unstable and has a stopping and starting nature or quick fluctuations in intensity.
SLEET: A mix of rain and snow that falls when the temperature is around freezing.
SNOW: A type of precipitation made up of white or translucent ice crystals. Snow originates in cold clouds due to the direct conversion of water vapour to ice. TAUNDERSTORM (also known as a thundershower) – A cumulonimbus cloud-generated local storm accompanied by thunder and lightning.
TURBULENCE: The violent vertical motion of the air that can cause a plane to fly up and down.
WEATHER: The state of the atmosphere in terms of heat or cold, wetness or dryness, calmness or storminess, clearness or cloudiness.
Weather is also the meteorological variation of the atmosphere and its effects on life and human activity. Temperature, pressure, humidity, clouds, wind, precipitation, and fog are all included.
WIND SHEAR: A shift in wind direction; vertical wind shear is a shift in wind speed with height.
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