Modeling The Effects Of Carriers On Transmission Dynamics Of Infectious Diseases
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Modeling The Effects Of Carriers On Transmission Dynamics Of Infectious Diseases
Chapter one
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Background of Study
Certain infectious diseases can be transmitted by people who show no symptoms. These people are known as “carriers” and play a vital role in disease transmission. There are two kinds of carriers. Genetic carriers inherit the ailment through their recessive genes. They can only transmit their condition to their children and are not contagious.
Our study focusses on infectious illness carriers. These people are asymptomatic and most likely ignorant of their diseases, making them more prone to infect others. The pathogen Salmonella Typhi causes Typhoid fever, which creates long-term asymptotic carriers.
Typhoid fever gained widespread attention at the turn of the twentieth century with the cases of “Mr. N the Milker” in England and Typhoid Mary in the United States. Over the course of decades, these individuals infected hundreds of others while working in the food processing business and private households.
Typhoid fever still affects 21 million people and kills 200,000 per year. Asymptomatic carriers are thought to play an important role in the evolution and global spread of Typhi, and their presence impedes the elimination of Typhoid fever by treatment and vaccine.
Another significant infectious disease that causes long-term asymptomatic carriage is hepatitis B, a liver disease caused by the HBV virus from the Hepadnavirus family.
Most HBV infections result in complete recovery and permanent immunity to the virus. However, 5-10% of people have chronic HBV infection, with 15-25% developing liver damage.
Hepatitis B symptoms include jaundice, stomach pain, nausea, lethargy, and joint pain. Approximately 30% of persons with the condition exhibit none of these symptoms.
A key public-health problem in controlling hepatitis B infection in many countries is the presence of a substantial pool of chronic carriers who are responsible for spreading the majority of new infections. Other pathogen infections can also result in asymptomatic carriers.
The Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) belongs to the herpes family and is one of the most common viruses in humans. EBV infection is a prevalent cause of infectious mononucleosis, often known as glandular fever. Most EBV infections are asymptomatic because the virus remains dormant in the cells of the pharynx and immune system for the rest of one’s life.
Clostridium difficile is a bacteria that causes Clostridium difficile-associated illness (CDAD). CDAD remains the most prevalent cause of acute hospital-acquired diarrhoea, accounting for about 300,000 cases each year in acute-care facilities in the United States.
Asymptomatic carriage rates of up to 30% have been observed in long-term care settings. Carriers are considered to be responsible for CDAD transmission and significant epidemics in Europe and North America.
Despite their public health significance, the impacts of carriers on disease transmission patterns have received insufficient attention in the mathematical modelling literature. Kempe was one of the first attempts to develop and analyse a broad mathematical model that includes disease carriers.
Medley et al. employed a mathematical model of hepatitis B with carriers to investigate the impact of HBV vaccination. Several more experiments employing large-scale computational models with carriers are especially targeting hepatitis B and other diseases.
1.2 Statement of Problem
The prevalence of highly contagious diseases in Nigeria was the driving force for the investigation. Disease prevalence has increased in Nigeria and most African countries over time.
It is clear that academics have worked hard to develop models for the effect of carriers on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, yet some have proven to be ineffective.
1.3 Aims and Objectives of the Study
The primary goal of the research is to investigate the modelling of carriers’ effects on infectious disease transmission patterns. Other specific targets of the research work include:
1. To examine the impact of carriers on transmission dynamics.
2. Determine the fundamental reproduction number using numerical simulations.
3. To analyse the elements influencing the model.
4. To provide a solution to the given model.
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The study developed research questions to help determine the study’s aims. The research questions are listed as follows:
1. How do carriers affect the transmission dynamics?
2. How to get the fundamental reproduction number using numerical simulations?
3. What are the things that influence the model?
1.5 Significance of the Study
The study on modelling the effects of carriers on transmission dynamics of infectious diseases will be of immense benefit to the ministry of health, hospitals, the state government, and other researchers that wish to carryout similar research, as the study will be able to discuss the effects of carriers on the transmission dynamics and the factors affecting the model.
1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The research on modelling the effects of carriers on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is confined to the modelling of specific infectious diseases such as typhoid; how they are spread and the model for transmission.
1.7 Definition of Terms
DISEASES: a specific aberrant state, a structural or functional abnormality that affects a portion or the entire organism. Pathology is the study of disease, which includes the causative investigation of aetiology.
CARRIERS: individuals harbouring certain pathogenic organisms who, albeit often immune to the agent, may spread the disease to others.
INFECTIOUS: capable of spreading to humans, animals, and other creatures via the environment.
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