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Oil revenue fluctuations, fiscal policy response and economic growth

ABSTRACT
Every time the economy recesses the role of government intervention as proposed by Keynes again reiterates. However the nature and magnitude of these policies are important to note. It is on this premise that this study examines the impact of oil revenue fluctuations and fiscal policy response on economic growth in Nigeria. The study used data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Reports and Statistical Bulletin, the World Bank Indicators and National Bureau of Statistics. The data was analysed with the aid of multiple regression analysis and Garch model of analysis .The results suggest that Gross fixed capital formation, labour, foreign direct investment, Gross national expenditure and fuel subsidy were significant determinants of GDP. While: inflation, corruption perception index, and the excess crude dummy were not significant determinants of GDP. However, while corruption perception index and excess crude dummy were negatively related to GDP, the rest of the variables displayed a positive relationship with GDP. The study also shows that oil revenue fluctuations significantly and positively impacts on GDP in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that excess crude account and fuel subsidy should be consciously reinstated for it to perform at full capacity and significantly affect economic growth in a positive sense.

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